In early February 2023, we at MIP projected that for the US battery manufacturing industry to thrive, it would necessitate technology transfers from leading non-US battery manufacturers, such as CATL, SK-On, and BYD. We believed that without such collaborations, protectionist policies might hinder the US battery industry’s capabilities and global competitiveness.

Our forecast was swiftly validated. Just two days after our statement, on February 13, 2023, Ford announced a significant $3.5 billion investment in a new battery plant. They chose to license technology from CATL to produce LFP batteries. Ford openly acknowledged that CATL was their optimal technology partner. Despite their ambition to rejuvenate the US EV industry, which had been trailing behind its global counterparts, they recognized the necessity of collaborating with an overseas technology partner.

Further emphasizing our prediction, by July 2023, Amprius Technologies Inc., which had been in line for a $50 million Energy Department grant to produce silicon anode material, opted to withdraw from the grant process. The stringent conditions related to excluding Chinese collaborations proved too restrictive for them.